Factors affecting severity of wildfires in Scottish heathlands and blanket bogs.

Temperate heathlands and blanket bogs are globally rare and face growing wildfire threats. Ecosystem impacts differ between low and high severity fires, where severity reflects immediate fuel consumption. This study assessed factors influencing fire severity in Scottish heathlands and blanket bogs, including the efficacy of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (CFWIS). Using remote sensing, we measured the differenced Normalised Burn Ratio at 92 wildfire sites from 2015 to 2021. We used Generalised Additive Mixed Models to investigate the impact of topography, habitat wetness, CFWIS components and 30-day weather on severity. Dry heath exhibited higher severity than wet heath and blanket bog, and slope, elevation and south facing aspect were positively correlated to severity. Weather effects were less clear due to data scale differences, yet still indicated weather's significant role in severity. Rainfall had an increasingly negative effect from approximately 15 days before the fire, whilst temperature had an increasingly positive effect. Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) was the weather variable with highest explanatory value, and predicted severity better than any CFWIS component. The best-explained fire severity model (R2 = 0.25) incorporated topography, habitat wetness wind and VPD on the day of the fire. The Drought Code (DC), predicting organic matter flammability at ≥10 cm soil depth, was the CFWIS component with the highest predictive effect across habitats. Our findings suggest that wildfires in wet heath and blanket bogs are typically characterised by low severity, but that warmer, drier weather may increase the risk of severe, smouldering fires which threaten peatland carbon stores.

Age-specific impacts of vegetation functional traits on gastrointestinal nematode parasite burdens in a large herbivore.

Gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) parasites play an important role in the ecological dynamics of many animal populations. Recent studies suggest that fine-scale spatial variation in GIN infection dynamics is important in wildlife systems, but the environmental drivers underlying this variation remain poorly understood. We used data from over two decades of GIN parasite egg counts, host space use, and spatial vegetation data from a long-term study of Soay sheep on St Kilda to test how spatial autocorrelation and vegetation in an individual's home range predict parasite burden across three age groups. We developed a novel approach to quantify the plant functional traits present in a home range to describe the quality of vegetation present. Effects of vegetation and space varied between age classes. In immature lambs, strongyle parasite faecal egg counts (FEC) were spatially structured, being highest in the north and south of our study area. Independent of host body weight and spatial autocorrelation, plant functional traits predicted parasite egg counts. Higher egg counts were associated with more digestible and preferred plant functional traits, suggesting the association could be driven by host density and habitat preference. In contrast, we found no evidence that parasite FEC were related to plant functional traits in the host home range in yearlings or adult sheep. Adult FEC were spatially structured, with highest burdens in the north-east of our study area, while yearling FEC showed no evidence of spatial structuring. Parasite burdens in immature individuals appear more readily influenced by fine-scale spatial variation in the environment, highlighting the importance of such heterogeneity for our understanding of wildlife epidemiology and health. Our findings support the importance of fine-scale environmental variation for wildlife disease ecology and provides new evidence that such effects may vary across demographic groups within a population.

Functional trait trade-offs define plant population stability across different biomes.

Ecological theory posits that temporal stability patterns in plant populations are associated with differences in species' ecological strategies. However, empirical evidence is lacking about which traits, or trade-offs, underlie species stability, especially across different biomes. We compiled a worldwide collection of long-term permanent vegetation records (greater than 7000 plots from 78 datasets) from a large range of habitats which we combined with existing trait databases. We tested whether the observed inter-annual variability in species abundance (coefficient of variation) was related to multiple individual traits. We found that populations with greater leaf dry matter content and seed mass were more stable over time. Despite the variability explained by these traits being low, their effect was consistent across different datasets. Other traits played a significant, albeit weaker, role in species stability, and the inclusion of multi-variate axes or phylogeny did not substantially modify nor improve predictions. These results provide empirical evidence and highlight the relevance of specific ecological trade-offs, i.e. in different resource-use and dispersal strategies, for plant populations stability across multiple biomes. Further research is, however, necessary to integrate and evaluate the role of other specific traits, often not available in databases, and intraspecific trait variability in modulating species stability.

Long-term temporal trends in gastrointestinal parasite infection in wild Soay sheep.

Monitoring the prevalence and abundance of parasites over time is important for addressing their potential impact on host life histories, immunological profiles and their influence as a selective force. Only long-term ecological studies have the potential to shed light on both the temporal trends in infection prevalence and abundance and the drivers of such trends, because of their ability to dissect drivers that may be confounded over shorter time scales. Despite this, only a relatively small number of such studies exist. Here, we analysed changes in the prevalence and abundance of gastrointestinal parasites in the wild Soay sheep population of St. Kilda across 31 years. The host population density (PD) has increased across the study, and PD is known to increase parasite transmission, but we found that PD and year explained temporal variation in parasite prevalence and abundance independently. Prevalence of both strongyle nematodes and coccidian microparasites increased during the study, and this effect varied between lambs, yearlings and adults. Meanwhile, abundance of strongyles was more strongly linked to host PD than to temporal (yearly) dynamics, while abundance of coccidia showed a strong temporal trend without any influence of PD. Strikingly, coccidian abundance increased 3-fold across the course of the study in lambs, while increases in yearlings and adults were negligible. Our decades-long, intensive, individual-based study will enable the role of environmental change and selection pressures in driving these dynamics to be determined, potentially providing unparalleled insight into the drivers of temporal variation in parasite dynamics in the wild.

Variability in mycorrhizal status of plant species is much larger within than between plots in grassland and coastal habitats.

Community-level studies linking plant mycorrhizal status to environment usually do not account for within-plot mycorrhizal status variability; thus, patterns of plant mycorrhizal status diversity are largely unknown. Here, we assessed the relative importance of within- and between-plot variability components in mycorrhizal status and examined how plant mycorrhizal status diversity is related to soil nutrient availability. We hypothesised larger between-plot variability in mycorrhizal status and higher plant mycorrhizal status diversity in P-poor soils. To test these hypotheses, we used plant phylogenies, vegetation, soil and plant mycorrhizal status data from Czech semi-natural grasslands and Scottish coastal habitats. We divided plant mycorrhizal status diversity into divergence and evenness and tested their relations to soil P, K, Ca and Mg. Within-plot variability component of mycorrhizal status was always, on average, at least 2.2 times larger than between-plot variability in our datasets. Plant mycorrhizal status divergence was positively related to Ca (in both datasets) and Mg (only in grasslands and when accounting for phylogeny). In grasslands, the relationship between Mg and plant mycorrhizal status evenness was negative when accounting for phylogeny, while it was positive when not accounting for phylogeny. Plant mycorrhizal status diversity was not linked to P and its relation to K was inconsistent. Our results suggest that high Ca in the soil can promote coexistence of mycorrhizal, facultatively mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plant species. We encourage future studies to also focus on within-plot variability in mycorrhizal status, because it appears to be highly relevant in herbaceous systems.

Active and adaptive plasticity in a changing climate.

Better understanding of the mechanistic basis of plant plasticity will enhance efforts to breed crops resilient to predicted climate change. However, complexity in plasticity's conceptualisation and measurement may hinder fruitful crossover of concepts between disciplines that would enable such advances. We argue active adaptive plasticity is particularly important in shaping the fitness of wild plants, representing the first line of a plant's defence to environmental change. Here, we define how this concept may be applied to crop breeding, suggest appropriate approaches to measure it in crops, and propose a refocussing on active adaptive plasticity to enhance crop resilience. We also discuss how the same concept may have wider utility, such as in ex situ plant conservation and reintroductions.

Global patterns of potential future plant diversity hidden in soil seed banks.

Soil seed banks represent a critical but hidden stock for potential future plant diversity on Earth. Here we compiled and analyzed a global dataset consisting of 15,698 records of species diversity and density for soil seed banks in natural plant communities worldwide to quantify their environmental determinants and global patterns. Random forest models showed that absolute latitude was an important predictor for diversity of soil seed banks. Further, climate and soil were the major determinants of seed bank diversity, while net primary productivity and soil characteristics were the main predictors of seed bank density. Moreover, global mapping revealed clear spatial patterns for soil seed banks worldwide; for instance, low densities may render currently species-rich low latitude biomes (such as tropical rain-forests) less resilient to major disturbances. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the distribution of soil seed banks, which enables a more accurate prediction of the resilience and vulnerabilities of plant communities and biomes under global changes.

Mycorrhizal status is a poor predictor of the distribution of herbaceous species along the gradient of soil nutrient availability in coastal and grassland habitats.

Plant mycorrhizal status (a trait indicating the ability to form mycorrhizas) can be a useful plant trait for predicting changes in vegetation influenced by increased fertility. Mycorrhizal fungi enhance nutrient uptake and are expected to provide a competitive advantage for plants growing in nutrient-poor soils; while in nutrient-rich soils, mycorrhizal symbiosis may be disadvantageous. Some studies in natural systems have shown that mycorrhizal plants can be more frequent in P and N-poor soils (low nutrient availability) or Ca and Mg-high (high pH) soils, but empirical support is still not clear. Using vegetation and soil data from Scottish coastal habitats, and Latvian and Czech grasslands, we examined whether there is a link between plant mycorrhizal status and plant-available P, N, Ca and Mg. We performed the max test analysis (to examine the central tendency) and a combination of quantile regression and meta-analysis (to examine tendencies in different quantiles) on both community and plant species data combined with plant phylogenies. We consistently found no changes in mycorrhizal status at the community and species levels along the gradients of plant-available P, N, Ca and Mg in the central tendency and in almost all quantiles across all datasets. Thus, we found no support for the hypotheses that herbaceous species which are able to form mycorrhizas are more frequent in nutrient-poor and high pH environments. Obligatory, facultatively and non-mycorrhizal herbaceous species appear to assemble randomly along the gradients of nutrient availability in several European herbaceous habitats, suggesting that all these strategies perform similarly under non-extreme soil nutrient conditions.

Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale.

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.

Clade composition of a plant community indicates its phylogenetic diversity.

Phylogenetic diversity quantification is based on indices computed from phylogenetic distances among species, which are derived from phylogenetic trees. This approach requires phylogenetic expertise and available molecular data, or a fully sampled synthesis-based phylogeny. Here, we propose and evaluate a simpler alternative approach based on taxonomic coding. We developed metrics, the clade indices, based on information about clade proportions in communities and species richness of a community or a clade, which do not require phylogenies. Using vegetation records from herbaceous plots from Central Europe and simulated vegetation plots based on a megaphylogeny of vascular plants, we examined fit accuracy of our proposed indices for all dimensions of phylogenetic diversity (richness, divergence, and regularity). For real vegetation data, the clade indices fitted phylogeny-based metrics very accurately (explanatory power was usually higher than 80% for phylogenetic richness, almost always higher than 90% for phylogenetic divergence, and often higher than 70% for phylogenetic regularity). For phylogenetic regularity, fit accuracy was habitat and species richness dependent. For phylogenetic richness and divergence, the clade indices performed consistently. In simulated datasets, fit accuracy of all clade indices increased with increasing species richness, suggesting better precision in species-rich habitats and at larger spatial scales. Fit accuracy for phylogenetic divergence and regularity was unreliable at large phylogenetic scales, suggesting inadvisability of our method in habitats including many distantly related lineages. The clade indices are promising alternative measures for all projects with a phylogenetic framework, which can trade-off a little precision for a significant speed-up and simplification, such as macroecological analyses or where phylogenetic data is incomplete.

Author Correction: A global database for metacommunity ecology, integrating species, traits, environment and space.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A global database for metacommunity ecology, integrating species, traits, environment and space.

The use of functional information in the form of species traits plays an important role in explaining biodiversity patterns and responses to environmental changes. Although relationships between species composition, their traits, and the environment have been extensively studied on a case-by-case basis, results are variable, and it remains unclear how generalizable these relationships are across ecosystems, taxa and spatial scales. To address this gap, we collated 80 datasets from trait-based studies into a global database for metaCommunity Ecology: Species, Traits, Environment and Space; "CESTES". Each dataset includes four matrices: species community abundances or presences/absences across multiple sites, species trait information, environmental variables and spatial coordinates of the sampling sites. The CESTES database is a live database: it will be maintained and expanded in the future as new datasets become available. By its harmonized structure, and the diversity of ecosystem types, taxonomic groups, and spatial scales it covers, the CESTES database provides an important opportunity for synthetic trait-based research in community ecology.

What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

Nitrogen (N) deposition poses a severe risk to global terrestrial ecosystems, and managing this threat is an important focus for air pollution science and policy. To understand and manage the impacts of N deposition, we need metrics which accurately reflect N deposition pressure on the environment, and are responsive to changes in both N deposition and its impacts over time. In the UK, the metric typically used is a measure of total N deposition over 1-3 years, despite evidence that N accumulates in many ecosystems and impacts from low-level exposure can take considerable time to develop. Improvements in N deposition modelling now allow the development of metrics which incorporate the long-term history of pollution, as well as current exposure. Here we test the potential of alternative N deposition metrics to explain vegetation compositional variability in British semi-natural habitats. We assembled 36 individual datasets representing 48,332 occurrence records in 5479 quadrats from 1683 sites, and used redundancy analyses to test the explanatory power of 33 alternative N metrics based on national pollutant deposition models. We find convincing evidence for N deposition impacts across datasets and habitats, even when accounting for other large-scale drivers of vegetation change. Metrics that incorporate long-term N deposition trajectories consistently explain greater compositional variance than 1-3 year N deposition. There is considerable variability in results across habitats and between similar metrics, but overall we propose that a thirty-year moving window of cumulative deposition is optimal to represent impacts on plant communities for application in science, policy and management.

Calcium plus magnesium indicates digestibility: the significance of the second major axis of plant chemical variation for ecological processes.

Plant variation in nutrient concentrations encompasses two major axes. The first is connected to nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), reflects growth rate and has been designated as the leaf economics spectrum (LES) while the second follows the gradient in calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) and mirrors cell structural differences. Here, we tested in grasslands whether the sum Ca + Mg concentrations is a better indicator of digestibility than LES constituents. Structural equation modelling revealed that the total effect size of N (0.30) on digestibility was much lower than that of Ca + Mg (0.58). The N effect originated predominantly from sampling date (biomass ageing), while the Ca + Mg effect largely from phylogenetic composition (proportion of monocots). Thus, plant variation in partially substitutable divalent cations seems to play a significant role in biomass digestion by ruminants. This finding contests, together with litter decomposition studies, the prominent role of the LES for understanding both fundamental ecological processes.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network.

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Decline in atmospheric sulphur deposition and changes in climate are the major drivers of long-term change in grassland plant communities in Scotland.

The predicted long lag time between a decrease in atmospheric deposition and a measured response in vegetation has generally excluded the investigation of vegetation recovery from the impacts of atmospheric deposition. However, policy-makers require such evidence to assess whether policy decisions to reduce emissions will have a positive impact on habitats. Here we have shown that 40 years after the peak of SOx emissions, decreases in SOx are related to significant changes in species richness and cover in Scottish Calcareous, Mestrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands. Using a survey of vegetation plots across Scotland, first carried out between 1958 and 1987 and resurveyed between 2012 and 2014, we test whether temporal changes in species richness and cover of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae, and Juncaceae can be explained by changes in sulphur and nitrogen deposition, climate and/or grazing intensity, and whether these patterns differ between six grassland habitats: Acid, Calcareous, Lolium, Nardus, Mesotrophic and Wet grasslands. The results indicate that Calcareous, Mesotrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands in Scotland are starting to recover from the UK peak of SOx deposition in the 1970's. A decline in the cover of grasses, an increase in cover of bryophytes and forbs and the development of a more diverse sward (a reversal of the impacts of increased SOx) was related to decreased SOx deposition. However there was no evidence of a recovery from SOx deposition in the Acid or Lolium grasslands. Despite a decline in NOx deposition between the two surveys we found no evidence of a reversal of the impacts of increased N deposition. The climate also changed significantly between the two surveys, becoming warmer and wetter. This change in climate was related to significant changes in both the cover and species richness of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae and Juncaceae but the changes differed between habitats.

Long-term impacts of nitrogen deposition on coastal plant communities.

Nitrogen deposition has been shown to have significant impacts on a range of vegetation types resulting in eutrophication and species compositional change. Data from a re-survey of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, c. 34 years after the initial survey were examined to assess the degree of change in species composition that could be accounted for by nitrogen deposition. There was an overall increase in the Ellenberg Indicator Value for nitrogen (EIV-N) of 0.15 between the surveys, with a clear shift to species characteristic of more eutrophic situations. This was most evident for Acid grassland, Fixed dune, Heath, Slack and Tall grass mire communities and despite falls in EIV-N for Improved grass, Strand and Wet grassland. The increase in EIV-N was highly correlated to the cumulative deposition between the surveys, and for sites in south-east Scotland, eutrophication impacts appear severe. Unlike other studies, there appears to have been no decline in species richness associated with nitrogen deposition, though losses of species were observed on sites with the very highest levels of SOx deposition. It appears that dune vegetation (specifically Fixed dune) shows evidence of eutrophication above 4.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), or 5.92 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) if the lower 95% confidence interval is used. Coastal vegetation appears highly sensitive to nitrogen deposition, and it is suggested that major changes could have occurred prior to the first survey in 1976.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century.

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34 years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Combination of herbivore removal and nitrogen deposition increases upland carbon storage.

Ecosystem carbon (C) accrual and storage can be enhanced by removing large herbivores as well as by the fertilizing effect of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition. These drivers are unlikely to operate independently, yet their combined effect on aboveground and belowground C storage remains largely unexplored. We sampled inside and outside 19 upland grazing exclosures, established for up to 80 years, across an N deposition gradient (5-24 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) ) and found that herbivore removal increased aboveground plant C stocks, particularly in moss, shrubs and litter. Soil C storage increased with atmospheric N deposition, and this was moderated by the presence or absence of herbivores. In exclosures receiving above 11 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) , herbivore removal resulted in increased soil C stocks. This effect was typically greater for exclosures dominated by dwarf shrubs (Calluna vulgaris) than by grasses (Molinia caerulea). The same pattern was observed for ecosystem C storage. We used our data to predict C storage for a scenario of removing all large herbivores from UK heathlands. Predictions were made considering herbivore removal only (ignoring N deposition) and the combined effects of herbivore removal and current N deposition rates. Predictions including N deposition resulted in a smaller increase in UK heathland C storage than predictions using herbivore removal only. This finding was driven by the fact that the majority of UK heathlands receive low N deposition rates at which herbivore removal has little effect on C storage. Our findings demonstrate the crucial link between herbivory by large mammals and atmospheric N deposition, and this interaction needs to be considered in models of biogeochemical cycling.